Maps Maps and More Maps

Marvin's well known penchant for maps makes an appearance at The Ivy Bush today. If you liked the "official" electoral map at the Edwards site you might like this one too. This second map doesn't have quite the polish of the "offical" map Marvin references. But the relative electoral weight expressed in varying state sizes makes strategic prognostication a little easier. Also, the ability to set a state to "white" (neither donkey or pachyderm) is nice.

Marvin reels off a number of states in which the Democrats might focus their energies. Tennessee, Kentucky, and Louisiana are on his list. He doesn't mention Nevada, which, despite its electoral deficiency, would be a good pick-up. I also think Nevada, with its loathing of Bush's broken nuclear waste promise and a wealth of new, urban transplants, is more likely to flip than the three southern states Marvin mentions.

But, as usual, Marvin hits the nail squarely on the head by mentioning Ohio. Whether or not Bush remembers what he was doing in 1972, he knows his electoral history. No Republican has ever won a national election without carrying the Buckeye state. Therefore, Bush has visited the state over a dozen times trying to burnish his image. I wonder how many of the 3 million jobs lost during the past 3 years are in Ohio's manufacturing sector?

Bush won Ohio in 2000 by about 3.5% (~165,000 votes). Take Nader out of the equation and it's a margin of about 1% (under 50,000 votes). Ohio will be a big prize indeed.

As to Brother John's speculation that New Mexico is safely in Bill Richardson's hands...one wonders whether governors wield such power. If true, perhaps Arizona too is in play. Bush won Arizona by 6% in 2000. Remove the Nader factor and his margin of victory is cut in half. Janet Napolitano, Arizona's Democratic governor, was elected in the same 2002 class of governors as Bill Richardson. Surely she can be counted on to stuff ballot boxes for the Anyone But Bush crowd.

Then again, if governors are pulling the levers, Ohio's GOP Governor Bob Taft may not even need Bush to visit his state a dozen more times before the election.