Where's Kerry?

More than a few of us have wondered where the putative Democratic nominee is hiding himself these days. Perhaps he's infiltrated the GOP's secure, undisclosed location and is cutting the puppet strings that give Dick "Stromboli" Cheney such power over Bushnocchio.

Okay, I guess Kerry is not (literally) using his vast military training to sneak up on America's favorite Chicken Hawk or his AWOL puppet boy. But Kerry does seem to be AWOL on the campaign trail lately. What's he up to?

In his defense, Kerry is in something of a tough spot right now. Bush, though not quite in free fall, is daily buffeted by the blowback of his inexperience and mismanagement. For Kerry to try and capitalize on poor, poor Georgie's misfortune would be perceived (especially by the not-so liberal media) as rank political opportunism. Furthermore, Kerry's campaign must be saying to themselves, what more can we add to the present debate on Bush's bumbling? For the time being they are content to let events speak for themselves.

A Newsweek article calls this the "Sock Puppet Strategy" in which Kerry need only present himself as a not unattractive alternative to the Bush debacle. The theory is that if the foreign situation continues to deteriorate then even a sock puppet could defeat Bush in November.

Thus, Kerry is attempting to present himself as a viable alternative in Red State America.

In a painstakingly balanced speech—crafted by a coalition of Democratic centrists—Kerry took dead aim at the mainstream, calculating that voters may want to change leaders more than philosophy. The president, Kerry declared, was an inept, simplistic, go-it-alone cowboy incapable of carrying on America's tradition of global alliance-building. Even so, Kerry agreed that creating a new Iraq was necessary for American security, and he proclaimed himself just as tough—and as willing to use military force, even pre-emptively—as the man he wants to replace.

Such a bland message -- tweak the strategy and choose a real leader -- is unlikely to land him much media coverage. Especially in today's environment of continuing bad news from Iraq and Abu Ghraib. So, although Kerry is out on the trail, he's not getting a lot of attention.

And as long as events continue to demonstrate that Bush is presiding over a hapless, rudderless, failing ship of state then it's probably in Kerry's interest to stay -- in the word's of another former one-term Texas president -- "above the fray." The problem for Kerry is that the "Sock Puppet Strategy" relies on events to drive Bush's negatives. And, as we've seen three times before, Bush benefits from short term spikes of public approval. Osama in October or a Madrid style attack before November would likely cause a rally around Bush effect that would be sufficient to hand him the White House.

Kerry needs to find a way to break through in today's crowded media environment and innoculate against the possiblity of a rally around Dubya. He needs to, as I've argued for over a year, own the security debate and hammer home that America's fundamental lack of safety in this moment results from Bush's weakness, inexperience, and lack of true leadership. Kerry needs to resurrect the message he used in New Hampshire in January. He needs to hammer George Bush not for doing too much in the War on Terror but for doing too little. He needs to point out that not only has Bush failed to secure Afghanistan and Iraq but that he's failed to secure the docks and harbours of New York, San Diego, Los Angeles, and Boston.

Kerry needs to point out that even Osama's eventual capture will demonstrate the fundamental failure of Bush's "leadership." No doubt, Osama will be killed or captured. But his capture comes years too late. Too late because George Bush lacked the courage and leadership to finish the job in Afghanistan, so eager was he to invade and occupy Iraq. To late because Bush's inexperience and arrogance cost American prestige and has created a new generation of Bin Laden's.

Current events have sowed seeds of doubt about Bush's ability. Kerry must tend to these seedlings. It is a difficult task to call for Bush's accountability without being excoriated for politicizing the issue. So Kerry must tread gently and weather whatever attacks come his way. For if the seeds of doubt are not sufficiently strong they will be trampled in the next stampede to rally around Bush. And if that happens, nobody will care where Kerry is.