Saturday, October 09, 2004

Expectations Management

Last night, after an abysmal first debate performance from which he had to rebound, Bush climbed back into the ring. But aside from rejoining the main event Sonny Liston Bush didn't substantially alter the larger campaign dynamic during the 90 minute town hall meeting.

Bush did form complete sentences. This is always a plus for someone who hopes to be president. But I'm hard pressed to find other praiseworthy moments from Bush's performance.

During the first 45 minutes Bush practically yelled his answers at the audience. He labored mightily to supress his inveterate smirk and constant grimacing. Sometimes he even seemed to succeed. He was less successful in containing his anger. At one point Bush almost took a swing at moderator Charlie Gibson. As it was, Bush stifled his pugilistic predilection and merely (rudely) interrupted and ignored the moderator on his way to berate (again) the audience.

To be sure, Bush took some swings. Less astute observers might even give Bush credit for some of his "liberal" sucker punches. But it was an uneven performance. Yet despite his not performing to expectations in his forte -- the town hall format -- Bush was clearly stronger in this debate than in the first debate. And while that can reasonably be construed as damning with faint praise, I do mean that sincerely. Bush truly did perform better last night than he did during his first face-off with Kerry. Unfortuntely for team Bush, Kerry performed better as well. Kerry was stronger on his own and stronger when countering Bush improved but still ineffective attacks.

Aside from resorting to cheating (i.e. voter intimidation, October surprise, etc. -- which would be completely in character for the Bushies) everything comes down to Wednesday's debate. To switch sports metaphors, Kerry merely needs to hold serve. Kerry has demonstrated his presidential bona fides. He has demonstrated a coolness, calmness, effectiveness, likability, and resolve that the electorate will find refreshing.

Bush, on the other hand, has confirmed perceptions of him as a selfish, petulant, childlike automoton for whom rules don't apply. He continues to believe in his own infallability despite the contrary evidence of reality.

To mix my sports metaphors one last time, Bush must hit a homerun on Wednesday. But, a homerun is merely a necessary and not a sufficient condition for Bush victory. As he's rounding third Bush must make a brief stop at the visitor's dugout, bat still in hand, and forcefully beat Kerry to a lifeless bloody pulp. And he must do so without confirming the public's suspicion of Bush as an angry bully. Anything less than the manly manhandling of Kerry while scoring run after run will be insufficient.