ARG!

I'm not a big fan of polling. Which is to say that I don't really follow the daily back and forth that polls purport to show. Certainly, national polls are precisely useless given the electoral college system by which we elect presidents.

I do pay some heed to some state polls. But really that is also somewhat pointless other than to remind us that this election is going to be very close. Many states (i.e. Texas, California, etc.) are outside the margin of error in all reputable polls and thus their outcome is really not in question (unless you're counting on Diebold). The remaining states are within the margin of error meaning the predictive value of the poll is marginal (not to say non-existant as Kevin Drum thoughtfully reminded us last month).

Although I don't closely follow or write about polls I think the release of the massive American Research Group (ARG) poll deserves some attention. In a poll of over 30,000 people in all 50 states ARG posts the following results:

• George W. Bush is at 47% and John Kerry is at 46% in the weighted national popular vote.
  
• Bush leads outside the margin of error in 17 states with 133 electoral votes.
  
• Kerry leads outside the margin of error in 10 states with 132 electoral votes.
  
• Bush has any lead in 29 states with 253 electoral votes.
  
• Kerry has any lead in 20 states with 270 electoral votes.
  
• Bush and Kerry are tied in Wisconsin and West Virginia.
  
• Bush needs to defend small leads in 5 states - Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Ohio.
  
• Kerry needs to defend small leads in 5 states - Maine, Florida, Minnesota, Oregon, and Pennsylvania.
  
• Among men nationwide, 51% say they would vote for Bush and 42% say they would vote for Kerry.
  
• Among women nationwide, 42% say they would vote for Bush and 50% say they would vote for Kerry.

The results mean a couple of things:

• This election IS close
  
  Forty-seven to forty-six percent means that Bush is ahead (given the large sample size there's not really a margin of error in the national number). But he's only ahead by 1 percent. Got that?
  
  O-N-E PERCENT.
  
  So, to you Republicans who have taped the most recent Gallup poll to your bathroom mirrors and giddily droll all over yourselves with glee while brushing your teeth...I hope you continue to delude yourselves. Please, please, read Gallup every day from now until November 2.
  
  To those of you who have mentioned to me your concern about Kerry's standing in the polls, I say "Smile." Things are good. Contrary to what the major media would have you believe, Kerry is doing quite well against the incumbent.
  
  
• YOU can make a difference
  
  Despite Kerry's strength in the polls, the outcome of this election is wholly predicated on YOUR efforts to get his supporters to the polls. How many voters have you touched today? How many calls have you made? How many minds have you swayed? Barring an October surprise (not to be discounted) it is the strengh of the GOTV effort that will decide this race. From where things stand right now, I like our odds. But we can not be complacent.
  
  
• Colorado Looks Good
  
  Colorado is looking pretty good for Kerry right about now. It's a statistical tie. But look at the detail. Kerry is pulling more Democrats than Bush is pulling Republicans (although Republicans outnumber Dems in the state). Also, there are a fair number of undecideds which have a decent chance of breaking for Kerry (especially if they are women and/or Independents). Finally, given the high Latino population (including citizens who do not speak English) and the huge volumes of new Latino voters being added to the rolls (probably not included in the polling), my hunch is that Kerry (with Salazar's help) will get the W in Colorado.
  
  
• North Carolina Looks Ehh
  
  Surprisingly, North Carolina also is showing as a statistical dead heat. Bush is doing way better with Republicans than Kerry is doing with Democrats. In a nominally Democratic state (by voter registration at least) that's not a good sign. So, while I'd love to pick up the 15 EV's of the Old North State, my hunch is that it will stay red this year. Screw that. To Mars, my bitches! Mars!
  
  
• Republicans Must Make A Choice
  
  If the ARG results hold up through November 2 then Republicans need to decide whether they're still in favor of the electoral college or if they've decided they prefer the popular vote.
  
  And I'd appreciate it if you would make the decision before November 2. Unlike last time.
  
  By the way, if, somehow, Kerry does win the electoral college but loses the popular vote, he'll be the first Democrat to win the White House without having won the popular vote...joining three Republicans with that dubious distinction.

Anyway, that's all plenty for now.

The bottom line is that this is a fight. And right now this fight is close. Next up is the debates which will be tough for Kerry. But I'm content to let Kerry worry about the debates while we worry about the streets.

Mars, my little bitches! Mars!