Softening the Target

It's pretty clear what's happening across the conservative media. They're busily softening up the post election terrain for all out assault:

Having done as much as possible to create the conditions for a confusing election, the GOP is getting ready to cast the inevitable results of that confusion -- people turning up in the wrong precincts, people who've moved from the neighborhood they originally registered and are trying to vote wherever they live now, and so forth -- as symptoms of outright election fraud. On Election Day, the GOP will challenge as many votes as they can at the polls, on whatever pretext is handy. They've already said they will. And then, if they're behind at the end of the day, GOP officials will start alleging massive voter fraud in Ohio, Florida, and elsewhere, whatever the facts on the ground are. That will give them a rhetorical advantage in the short-term -- if, say, John Kerry is far enough ahead that he declares victory, but there are still some votes to be counted or re-counted. And it's important for the long-term, too. If Kerry does win, but only narrowly, the GOP will allege that the Democrats stole the election, which will set the stage for later Republican efforts to shut down Kerry's ability to govern and deny him legitimacy.

You know, if Bush and his GOP brethren had devoted one tenth of the energy to the Iraq post-invasion as they have to their electoral theft strategy then right now Iraq would be the most democratic nation on earth.

Oh well. Priorities you know.

Kerry is going to need to win by more than the 10 point margin I've predicted in order to prevent the GOP's almost inevitable power grab. What, do you think, is the minimum margin necessary to prevent the GOP from challenging the results?