Toasty Cheney

"No one is suggesting that President Bush would be tempted to dump his veep from the ticket in November" write Tamara Lipper and Evan Thomas in this week's Newsweek. The assertion seems undercut slightly by the mere fact it appears in a story about that very possibility. The AP today has a wire report out on the same subject. Newsweek's Howard Fineman completes the trifecta.

At this point, I think the chances of Dick Cheney being booted off Bush's team are low. Initially viewed as a stabilizing and avuncular influence on the neophyte, fratish Georgie-Boy, Cheney enjoyed a fair amount of popularity before he slunk off to his undisclosed location. He's recently left his cave to hit the fund-raising circuit and he's proven his enduring popularity in conservative circles. Few, it seems, know or care about his many missteps. And those who are aware of his machinations probably aren't going to vote Bush-Cheney anyway. Cheney's cultivated image is not even likely to be damaged as his friends on the Supreme Court rule in his ongoing dispute regarding release of records from his secretive energy task force.

About the only reason for True-Believers to be worried for good 'ol Dickie is the Plame Affair. Cheney is safe, I think, unless and until indictments are handed down that reach into the Office of the Vice President. If and when Cheney's intelligence meddling (or that of his senior staff) is revealed it may become politically convenient -- if not downright necessary -- for Bush to force Cheney off the ticket.

The question for those of us in the ABB (Anybody But Bush) camp is whether such an eventuality is to be desired.

My preference is that Cheney remain on the ticket. For one, he's a known quantity. The Democratic nominee will not make his running-mate choice on the basis of who the GOP VP candidate is. But, knowing that it will be Cheney in the Vice Presidential debate probably affects the Democratic decision in some incalculable manner.

More importantly though, I'm not inclined to let Bush capitalize on the opportunity to name a new running-mate. Coming, as it likely would, during the fall campaign, a fresh new face could bring with it a raft of positive attention for the Bush reelection effort. Given the simple-minded manner in which the press covers such things, my hunch is that Cheney would finally get the blame he so richly deserves for many of the Bush administration missteps. The flip side is that the press would likely portray the vice-presidential changing of the guard as a clean slate for the top of the ticket too. With absolution from the press and an eager new (young? Latino? Californian? Ohioan?) hatchet man at his side, Bush would find an easier path to victory in November. This is not a scenario to which I look forward.

But at this point I'm not worried. For as the Newsweek article so amusingly notes: "Only the president (possibly) can tell [Cheney] what to say" or, I presume, do. Bush isn't anywhere near being the kind of strong, resolute, and decisive leader that his supporters believe him to be. I don't think the Boy-King has the moxie to put Cheney in the toaster.